BY BRIAN MCLAUGHLIN, TLI
I love the Real Clear Politics site and I also enjoy fivethirtyeight.com.
Below this article is a 538 chart projection of where this system thinks each state will have Johnson-percentage wise- in November. You can see at the top of the chart that the first batch of states are typical Republican red states mostly out west. But then the next batch are blue states and purple states that lean blue, robbing Clinton of some votes too.
Keep in mind, the numbers below are based on how things project based on today’s numbers and other dynamics. Basically “if the election were held today“.
Imagine-if you will-the Johnson debate question has been answered, and he and Weld are in all five Prez/VP debates. The groundswell of support materializes. I would imagine the numbers in the charts below would probably double if not triple in that instance–and in a 3-way race, you can win the state with numbers in the 30s, and Stein helps even more. But what I like about the 538 more than anything is it indicates which states are the best targets.
The maps up above in the “featured image” space take the stats below and plug them into a scenario chart. Let’s say the states below that are at 13 percent or better go Johnson thanks to a surge and also the debates. Also take into consideration right now that Trump is actually leading by a sliver in Florida and Ohio – THE two most important purple swing states in every election.
Even in the scenario where Johnson only wins the first five states below, he blocks Trump AND Hillary from getting the 270 majority – as long as Trump wins Ohio and Florida. Just losing these 20 electoral votes keeps Trump out of the White House directly, and Hillary without Ohio and Florida can’t reach majority either.
The other chart is what I’d call the Johnson “Perfect World Scenario”. This is where he actually maxes out and takes all the states below currently at 10 percent or better. Then he has 80 electoral votes and CLEARLY has blocked both fossil parties from the White House and it gets thrown to Congress.
It is an interesting time to be a Libertarian. This year we’re not going to finish at 1.03 percent and call it a “moral victory”, the country is going to hear about us this time.
It’s about damned time.
NOTE: Chart below we indicate the hotbed states that Bernie and Cruz won, to indicate the disenchantment with the current party’s two candidates. Thus the reason they are hotbeds.
|New Mexico (Gov’s home state)||5||17.2% of the vote|
|Montana (Bernie won, Cruz out of race)||3||16.5|
|Alaska (Bernie & Cruz won)||3||15.2|
|Utah (Bernie & Cruz won)||6||13.6|
|Wyoming (Bernie & Cruz won)||3||13.3|
|Indiana (Bernie & Trump)||11||11.7|
|North Dakota (Bernie & Cruz won)||3||11.5|
|So. Dakota (Clinton won, Cruz out of race)||3||11.2|
|Maine (Bernie & Cruz won)||4||11.1|
|New Hampshire (Bernie and Trump won)||4||10.5|
|Washington (Bernie & Trump won)||12||10.5|
|Minnesota (Bernie & Rubio won)||10||10.4|
|Colorado (Bernie & Cruz won)||9||10.1|
|Rhode Island (Bernie & Trump won)||4||9.9|