Gov. Johnson has been repeating the early strategy for several months. The Libertarian nominee must:
- Get INTO polls
- Get to 15 percent in those polls
- Get into debates to make the LP case
True planners would say “don’t get ahead of yourself” but let’s do it anyway because no matter what a good coach will tell you on the record–they’re ALWAYS planning ahead. That’s what good strategy types do!
Personally, I think Johnson will get into the debates — NO PROBLEM. I think he’ll be in the 15-20% range going into Labor Day (when the dolts start paying attention). It’ll be because of the perfect political environment, hard work at the grassroots level, and the great work Johnson and Weld are already doing getting the message out with the big-time media outlets. There’s no question this locomotive is getting up to speed.
Now … how about an attack strategy, once he gets his ticket to the “most popular” club on the debate stage. Now that we know he’ll get his 4 debate shots against the two most hated Prez candidates ever, and Weld will get his 1 Veep debate … where should he and his staff concentrate the resources and energy to make a true dent?
Let’s not think about this campaign as the chance to nab a moral victory. Screw that. Let’s torpedo this current duopolistic mess we’ve had for many decades and let’s break it up, as #Bernie would say with Larry David’s voice.
First – obviously aim for winnable states. So which states are winnable?
Well first, let’s think about:
- States Johnson did the best in back in 2012, percentage wise
- States Bernie and Cruz won during the primaries/caucuses
- Typical smaller Gen. Election purple states (since 1992 election).
THAT is what Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and his staff should focus on. Leave New York, California and Texas to the wolves. You won’t beat Trump in Texas, you won’t beat Billary in N.Y. or Cali because they’ve already seceded anyway and are marching goosestep with Che To ‘Da G, Karl-to-‘da-Marx and Obama anyway.
Below is a chart of our states and their electoral votes (EV). We’ll start with the “LP” friendly states, the states that saw Bernie, Cruz or Rubio win. We’ll also indicate which states are “Purple” – this designation comes if this state has switched parties off and on since 1992. We also list the percentages Gov. Johnson received in 2012 … as an indicator of maybe where LP philosophy might be more wildly accepted.
With the next level, we have the 50/50 fringe that have something going for them but might be tough, then we the ZERO chance areas.
Bottom line? Gov. Johnson will be strong in the Bernie/Cruz Western swath. Clinton and Trump will fight it out over the Deep South, with Trump winning most of those (those will be his only wins, mark my word) and Clinton will win all of the northeast/rust belt areas that Dems always win, and may pluck Arkansas away because she lived there like 90 years ago.
My take is that 111 electoral votes are RIPE for Libertarian takeover. That would be a monster victory, but obviously it is not a 270 majority. But then again, if we have 111 or more, they likely won’t have majority either.
Remember: Bernie won nearly half the states. Yeah, he’s getting his arse kicked in the popular vote, but he will finish with what, 20-25 state/territory wins? That’s a lot of pissed off voters. And the non-Trump victory states are marked below too — and there are tons of them.
Kasich, Rubio and Cruz split a trifecta vote that would have beaten Trump every time if they’d been unified behind one candidate. That’s the other target audience we’re drawing from.
With the 50/50 fringe states listed below, I think we have anot
her 87 electoral votes possible, but a HUGE case will need to be made. Florida is one of these. Again, Johnson MUST be in the mid 30s to be in the mix for this — but think about that. Is it really impossible for Johnson to hit 35 percent of the vote?
If nobody gets 270 electoral votes, a Republican Congress will settle it … and for the most part they don’t like Trump, and our two Governors are former Republican Govs, moderate. They would be peace makers in a helluva lot of ways.
If the LP can get 100-plus electoral votes, it means the other two parties are probably around 150-250 apiece. This could be an incredible, historical election–and yes, there IS a chance.
If I put “N/A” below it is because this contest came after Cruz withdrew or it is held this Tuesday June 7th and we don’t have results yet — but it probably won’t matter because Trump and Billary are “it” anyway.
Take a look at the chart and see if you agree (again, it descends based on Gov. Johnson’s finish there – with percentage – in the 2012 election). “BERN 63” or “Cruz 63” means he won the state by 63 percentage points:
|STATE||LP???||EVs||GJ % ’12||DEM||REP||PURPLE|
|Alaska||LP||3||2.46%||BERN 63||Cruz 2||NO|
|Wyoming||LP||3||2.14%||BERN 11||Cruz 64||NO|
|Kansas||LP||6||1.76%||BERN 35||Cruz 24||NO|
|Missouri||LP||10||1.56%||TIED 49 %||TIED 41%||YES|
|Nebraska, 3rd||LP||1||1.50%||BERN 15||N/A||NO|
|Nebraska, 1st||LP||1||1.46%||BERN 15||N/A||NO|
|Idaho||LP||4||1.45%||BERN 56||Cruz 17||NO|
|Maine, 2nd||LP||1||1.44%||BERN 29||Cruz 13||NO|
|Nebraska (AL)||LP||2||1.40%||BERN 15||N/A||NO|
|Maine (AL)||LP||2||1.31%||BERN 29||Cruz 13||NO|
|Nebraska, 2nd||LP||1||1.27%||BERN 15||N/A||NO|
|Utah||LP||6||1.24%||BERN 59||Cruz 57||NO|
|Maine, 1st||LP||1||1.20%||BERN 29||Cruz 13||NO|
|Minnesota||LP||10||1.20%||BERN 23||NON T 65||NO|
|Vermont||LP||3||1.17%||BERN 73||NON T 59||NO|
|New Hampshire||LP||4||1.16%||BERN 22||NON T 65||YES|
|Arkansas||50/50||6||1.52%||CLINT 36||NON T 56||NO|
|Arizona||50/50||11||1.40%||CLINT 15||Trump 18||NO|
|Ohio||50/50||18||0.89%||CLINT 14||NON T 63||YES|
|Iowa||50/50||6||0.82%||TIED 49%||Cruz 4||YES|
|Wisconsin||50/50||10||0.67%||BERN 13||Cruz 13||YES|
|Florida||50/50||29||0.53%||CLINT 31||NON T 54||YES|
|Oklahoma||50/50||7||NO BALLT.||BERN 10||Cruz won||NO|
|North Carolina||ZERO||15||0.99%||NO LP|
|Rhode Island||ZERO||4||0.98%||NO LP|
|West Virginia||ZERO||5||0.94%||NO LP|
|South Carolina||ZERO||9||0.83%||NO LP|
|New York||ZERO||29||0.67%||NO LP|
|New Jersey||ZERO||14||0.58%||NO LP|