Johnson-3-way-poll-updatedGov. Johnson has been repeating the early strategy for several months. The Libertarian nominee must:

  1. Get INTO polls
  2. Get to 15 percent in those polls
  3. Get into debates to make the LP case

True planners would say “don’t get ahead of yourself” but let’s do it anyway because no matter what a good coach will tell you on the record–they’re ALWAYS planning ahead. That’s what good strategy types do!

RELATED: Today I divorced the Republican Party and I’m never going back

Personally, I think Johnson will get into the debates — NO PROBLEM. I think he’ll be in the 15-20% range going into Labor Day (when the dolts start paying attention). It’ll be because of the perfect political environment, hard work at the grassroots level, and the great work Johnson and Weld are already doing getting the message out with the big-time media outlets. There’s no question this locomotive is getting up to speed.Libertarians

Now … how about an attack strategy, once he gets his ticket to the “most popular” club on the debate stage. Now that we know he’ll get his 4 debate shots against the two most hated Prez candidates ever, and Weld will get his 1 Veep debate … where should he and his staff concentrate the resources and energy to make a true dent?

Let’s not think about this campaign as the chance to nab a moral victory. Screw that. Let’s torpedo this current duopolistic mess we’ve had for many decades and let’s break it up, as #Bernie would say with Larry David’s voice.

First – obviously aim for winnable states. So which states are winnable?

Well first, let’s think about:

  1. States Johnson did the best in back in 2012, percentage wise
  2. States Bernie and Cruz won during the primaries/caucuses
  3. Typical smaller Gen. Election purple states (since 1992 election).

THAT is what Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson and his staff should focus on. Leave New York, California and Texas to the wolves. You won’t beat Trump in Texas, you won’t beat Billary in N.Y. or Cali because they’ve already seceded anyway and are marching goosestep with Che To ‘Da G, Karl-to-‘da-Marx and Obama anyway.

Below is a chart of our states and their electoral votes (EV). We’ll start with the “LP” friendly states, the states that saw Bernie, Cruz or Rubio win. We’ll also indicate which states are “Purple” – this designation comes if this state has switched parties off and on since 1992. We also list the percentages Gov. Johnson received in 2012 … as an indicator of maybe where LP philosophy might be more wildly accepted.LibertarianEmblem

With the next level, we have the 50/50 fringe that have something going for them but might be tough, then we the ZERO chance areas.

Bottom line? Gov. Johnson will be strong in the Bernie/Cruz Western swath. Clinton and Trump will fight it out over the Deep South, with Trump winning most of those (those will be his only wins, mark my word) and Clinton will win all of the northeast/rust belt areas that Dems always win, and may pluck Arkansas away because she lived there like 90 years ago.

My take is that 111 electoral votes are RIPE for Libertarian takeover. That would be a monster victory, but obviously it is not a 270 majority. But then again, if we have 111 or more, they likely won’t have majority either.

Remember: Bernie won nearly half the states. Yeah, he’s getting his arse kicked in the popular vote, but he will finish with what, 20-25 state/territory wins? That’s a lot of pissed off voters. And the non-Trump victory states are marked below too — and there are tons of them.

Kasich, Rubio and Cruz split a trifecta vote that would have beaten Trump every time if they’d been unified behind one candidate. That’s the other target audience we’re drawing from.

trumpClinton
With the 50/50 fringe states listed below, I think we have anot
her 87 electoral votes possible, but a HUGE case will need to be made. Florida is one of these. Again, Johnson MUST be in the mid 30s to be in the mix for this — but think about that. Is it really impossible for Johnson to hit 35 percent of the vote?

If nobody gets 270 electoral votes, a Republican Congress will settle it … and for the most part they don’t like Trump, and our two Governors are former Republican Govs, moderate. They would be peace makers in a helluva lot of ways.

If the LP can get 100-plus electoral votes, it means the other two parties are probably around 150-250 apiece. This could be an incredible, historical election–and yes, there IS a chance.

If I put “N/A” below it is because this contest came after Cruz withdrew or it is held this Tuesday June 7th and we don’t have results yet — but it probably won’t matter because Trump and Billary are “it” anyway.

Take a look at the chart and see if you agree (again, it descends based on Gov. Johnson’s finish there – with percentage – in the 2012 election). “BERN 63”  or “Cruz 63” means he won the state by 63 percentage points:

STATE LP??? EVs GJ % ’12 DEM REP PURPLE
New Mexico LP 5 3.55% N/A N/A YES
Montana LP 3 2.93% N/A N/A YES
Alaska LP 3 2.46% BERN 63 Cruz 2 NO
Wyoming LP 3 2.14% BERN  11 Cruz 64 NO
Indiana LP 11 1.91% BERN  5 N/A YES
Kansas LP 6 1.76% BERN  35 Cruz 24 NO
North Dakota LP 3 1.62% N/A N/A NO
South Dakota LP 3 1.59% N/A N/A NO
Missouri LP 10 1.56% TIED 49 % TIED 41% YES
Nebraska, 3rd LP 1 1.50% BERN  15 N/A NO
Nebraska, 1st LP 1 1.46% BERN  15 N/A NO
Idaho LP 4 1.45% BERN  56 Cruz 17 NO
Maine, 2nd LP 1 1.44% BERN  29 Cruz 13 NO
Nebraska (AL) LP 2 1.40% BERN  15 N/A NO
Colorado LP 9 1.38% BERN  19 N/A YES
Oregon LP 7 1.35% BERN  13 N/A NO
Washington LP 12 1.35% BERN  45 N/A NO
Maine (AL) LP 2 1.31% BERN  29 Cruz 13 NO
Nebraska, 2nd LP 1 1.27% BERN  15 N/A NO
Utah LP 6 1.24% BERN  59 Cruz 57 NO
Maine, 1st LP 1 1.20% BERN  29 Cruz 13 NO
Minnesota LP 10 1.20% BERN  23 NON T 65 NO
Vermont LP 3 1.17% BERN  73 NON T 59 NO
New Hampshire LP 4 1.16% BERN  22 NON T 65 YES
 
Arkansas 50/50 6 1.52% CLINT  36 NON T 56 NO
Arizona 50/50 11 1.40% CLINT  15 Trump 18 NO
Ohio[125] 50/50 18 0.89% CLINT  14 NON T 63 YES
Iowa 50/50 6 0.82% TIED 49% Cruz 4 YES
Wisconsin[126] 50/50 10 0.67% BERN 13 Cruz 13 YES
Florida 50/50 29 0.53% CLINT  31 NON T 54 YES
Oklahoma 50/50 7 NO BALLT. BERN 10 Cruz won NO
 
Georgia ZERO 16 1.16% NO LP
Maryland ZERO 10 1.12% NO LP
Texas ZERO 38 1.11% NO LP
California ZERO 55 1.10% NO LP
Nevada ZERO 6 1.08% NO LP
Illinois ZERO 20 1.07% NO LP
North Carolina ZERO 15 0.99% NO LP
Massachusetts ZERO 11 0.98% NO LP
Rhode Island ZERO 4 0.98% NO LP
Kentucky ZERO 8 0.95% NO LP
Delaware ZERO 3 0.94% NO LP
West Virginia ZERO 5 0.94% NO LP
Louisiana ZERO 8 0.91% NO LP
Hawaii ZERO 4 0.88% NO LP
Pennsylvania ZERO 20 0.87% NO LP
South Carolina ZERO 9 0.83% NO LP
Connecticut ZERO 7 0.81% NO LP
Virginia ZERO 13 0.81% NO LP
Tennessee ZERO 11 0.76% NO LP
D.C. ZERO 3 0.71% NO LP
New York[124] ZERO 29 0.67% NO LP
Alabama ZERO 9 0.59% NO LP
New Jersey[123] ZERO 14 0.58% NO LP
Mississippi ZERO 6 0.52% NO LP
Michigan ZERO 16 0.16% NO LP
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